EIA Lifts 2026 Brent Forecast to $91.01 on Prolonged Middle
The U.S. Energy Information Administration raised its full-year 2026 Brent estimate by more than $4 a barrel, citing Middle East export constraints that have persisted longer than expected and drained global inventories by an estimated 400 million barrels this year.
The U.S. Energy Information Administration raised its 2026 Brent crude forecast to $91.01 a barrel, up from $86.81 in August, citing Middle East export constraints that cut global oil inventories by roughly 400 million barrels this year, per its September 9, 2026 Short-Term Energy Outlook. It sees Brent averaging $90/b in H2 2026, easing to $74/b in 2027.
The Gulf Tape Desk · 3 min read- EIA raised its 2026 Brent average forecast to $91.01/b from $86.81, per its September 9, 2026 Short-Term Energy Outlook.
- Global oil inventories have fallen by an estimated 400 million barrels in 2026 as Middle East export constraints persist.
- EIA expects Brent to average $90/b in the second half of 2026 before easing to $74/b in 2027.
- Middle East crude production is projected to stay below historical averages until the second quarter of 2027.
- A firmer, longer oil-price band is a macro input for Gulf state revenue and energy-linked equities, not a sourced market move.
The U.S. Energy Information Administration raised its full-year 2026 Brent crude forecast to $91.01 per barrel, up from $86.81 in its August outlook, after concluding that Middle East export constraints have persisted longer than previously modeled and drained global oil inventories by an estimated 400 million barrels this year. The revision, posted in the EIA's September 9, 2026 Short-Term Energy Outlook, is a four-dollar-a-barrel move in the agency's own benchmark forecast — sourced to its own outlook report, not to a price print on the Tadawul, DFM or ADX.
Why It Moved: A Longer Middle East Squeeze
EIA's outlook said constraints on Middle East oil exports "will persist through the end of the year," holding regional crude production below historical averages until the second quarter of 2027. That extended timeline, longer than the agency's prior projection, is the single driver cited for the upward revision — not a change in global demand assumptions. Brent averaged $91 per barrel in August 2026, up $7 a barrel from July, as the market priced in the prolonged shortfall, according to the EIA.
The Inventory Math
Global oil inventories have fallen by an estimated 400 million barrels so far in 2026, the EIA said, the mechanism through which extended Middle East export losses have translated into higher spot and forward prices. A drawdown of that size is why the agency's revision landed on the supply side of the ledger rather than on demand: fewer barrels reaching the market, not more barrels being consumed, is doing the work in this forecast.
The 2027 Reversal
EIA expects the squeeze to ease next year: Brent is forecast to average $90 per barrel in the second half of 2026, then fall to $74 per barrel in 2027 as Middle East production recovers and global inventories begin rebuilding. The agency's own text frames the decline as conditional on that recovery — Middle East output is projected to stay below historical averages until the second quarter of 2027, so the 2027 figure assumes the disruption resolves roughly on that timeline, not sooner.
What Gulf Markets Are Watching
A firmer, longer-duration Brent band matters most for Gulf sovereigns and listed energy names whose revenue and dividend capacity track realized crude prices — Saudi Aramco chief among them on the Tadawul — but the EIA's forecast is a macro input, not a market call. This is not investment advice: no price, level or index move tied to this forecast has been sourced from the Tadawul, DFM or ADX at this writing, and any equity read-through should wait for exchange-level disclosures and company filings.
- How much did the EIA raise its 2026 Brent forecast?
- To $91.01 per barrel, up from $86.81 in its August outlook — a revision of more than $4 a barrel — according to the EIA's September 9, 2026 Short-Term Energy Outlook.
- Why did the EIA raise the forecast?
- The agency said Middle East export constraints have persisted longer than previously modeled, keeping regional production below historical averages and driving an estimated 400-million-barrel global inventory drawdown in 2026.
- What does the EIA expect for 2027?
- It expects Brent to ease to an average of $74 per barrel as Middle East production recovers and inventories rebuild, with regional output projected to stay below historical norms until the second quarter of 2027.
- EIA raises 2026 Brent average forecast to $91 as Middle East disruptions pressure inventories — Economy Middle East
- Short-Term Energy Outlook — U.S. Energy Information Administration
- EIA raises 2026 Brent average forecast to $91 as Middle East disruptions pressure inventories — Economy Middle East