• IEA now sees 2026 global oil demand falling 2.5 mb/d, a cut roughly 940,000 bpd steeper than its August estimate, per the September 11, 2026 Oil Market Report.
• 2026 supply is pegged at 100.7 mb/d, down 5.7 mb/d year-on-year, with the agency citing sustained Gulf shut-ins as the driver.
• August Gulf oil exports were roughly 13 mb/d, about half pre-war levels; crude flows were down near 45% and refined products/LPG down about 60%.
• North Sea Dated spiked to $113.48/bbl on September 9 after averaging $91/bbl in August; ICE Brent traded near $105/bbl as the report was written.
• The IEA pushed a full Middle East supply recovery into 2027, tying the timeline to the US-Iran diplomatic standoff and renewed Red Sea/Bab el-Mandeb attacks.

The International Energy Agency's September 11, 2026 Oil Market Report cut its 2026 oil balance again: global demand growth is now forecast to fall 2.5 million barrels a day and world supply to drop 5.7 million bpd, as more than 10 million bpd of Gulf output stays shut in and the US-Iran standoff continues. ICE Brent traded near $105 a barrel as the report published, with a full Middle East supply recovery pushed into 2027.

What the IEA Cut

The International Energy Agency's September 11, 2026 Oil Market Report deepened both sides of its 2026 balance. Global demand growth is now forecast to fall by 2.5 million barrels per day (mb/d) for the year, roughly 940,000 bpd steeper than the agency's August estimate, with the pace of decline easing from 5.3 mb/d in the second quarter to 3.4 mb/d in the third and 2 mb/d in the fourth. World supply is now pegged at 100.7 mb/d for 2026, down 5.7 mb/d year-on-year and 1.3 mb/d below last month's call.

Why the Barrels Are Missing

The supply cut traces directly to the Gulf. The IEA put August Gulf oil exports at roughly 13 mb/d, about half pre-war levels, with crude flows down near 45% and refined products and LPG exports down about 60% (3.7 mb/d); diesel and gasoil exports held at just 390,000 bpd, only a quarter of pre-war volume. More than 10 mb/d of Gulf output remains shut in, the agency said, as the US-Iran diplomatic standoff drags on and renewed attacks recur in the Gulf and at the Red Sea's Bab el-Mandeb chokepoint.

What Moved in Prices and Stocks

Tighter physical supply showed up first in inventories and cracks, not just headline crude. The IEA logged a 95-million-barrel stock draw in August and cumulative draws of 507 million barrels (2.8 mb/d average) between February and August, with non-OECD stocks down 52 million barrels against a 23-million-barrel OECD build. North Sea Dated averaged $91 a barrel in August but spiked to $113.48 on September 9; ICE Brent traded near $105 a barrel as the report was written, and diesel/gasoil cracks pushed product prices above $200 a barrel in early September.

What to Watch From Here

The IEA expects no quick fix: it pushed a full Middle East supply recovery into 2027, when it projects an 8 mb/d rebound alongside 2.6 mb/d of demand recovery that would only narrowly offset 2026's losses. For Gulf-market watchers, the read-through is two-sided — sustained tightness supports the crude price that underpins state budgets and index-heavy energy names on the Tadawul and ADX, even as the shut-in volumes are Gulf barrels. Watch the pace of US-Iran talks and any further Bab el-Mandeb incidents; this is a market summary, not investment advice.