• S&P Global Ratings affirmed Ras Al Khaimah's long- and short-term sovereign ratings at 'A/A-1' with a stable outlook, unchanged from its prior review.
• S&P forecasts government fiscal surpluses averaging about 3% of GDP over 2026-2029, backed by liquid assets it expects to average 30-35% of GDP through 2028.
• 2025 government revenue reached AED7.8 billion ($2.1 billion), beating the AED6.2 billion budget estimate, on dividends from RAK Ports and Marjan plus VAT and customs receipts.
• S&P cut its 2026 GDP growth forecast to 2.0% from an earlier 3.6%, before expecting growth to strengthen to a 2028-2029 average of 3.5%.
• Government debt stood at 7.4% of GDP in 2025, with contingent liabilities near 16% of GDP, per the S&P figures relayed in the rating statement.

S&P Global Ratings affirmed Ras Al Khaimah's long- and short-term sovereign credit ratings at 'A/A-1' with a stable outlook, Economy Middle East reported on September 14, 2026 - a hold, not a change, from the agency's prior review. The affirmation rests on a 2025 revenue beat and a deep liquidity cushion the agency sees persisting: government receipts of AED7.8 billion ($2.1 billion) ran ahead of a AED6.2 billion budget target, and S&P projects fiscal surpluses averaging roughly 3% of GDP through 2029, even after trimming its 2026 growth forecast.

The Rating, Unchanged

The affirmation carries Ras Al Khaimah's rating forward unchanged from S&P's previous assessment. S&P's own commentary, relayed in a government-carried statement on Zawya, ties the stable outlook to the emirate's fiscal buffers and net asset position rather than to any single upcoming catalyst - the agency sees the current risk balance holding for roughly the next two years.

Why the Surplus Holds

Ras Al Khaimah's government revenue outperformed its own budget last year, according to the S&P-cited figures carried by Zawya: AED7.8 billion ($2.1 billion) in 2025 receipts against an AED6.2 billion estimate, a roughly AED1.6 billion beat. S&P attributed the gap to steady dividends from government-related companies, including the ports operator RAK Ports and the free-zone and property authority Marjan, layered on top of VAT, customs duties, tolls and fees. On that base, S&P projects the government will keep running fiscal surpluses averaging near 3% of GDP across 2026 through 2029.

The Growth Trim

S&P lowered its 2026 GDP growth forecast for Ras Al Khaimah to 2.0%, down from an earlier 3.6% estimate, after 2025 growth ran at 4.3%, per the figures in the Zawya-carried statement. The agency expects the slower patch to be temporary: growth averaging 2.2% across 2026-2027, then accelerating to a 2028-2029 average of 3.5% as revenue growth strengthens. S&P flagged geopolitical tensions as the main driver of the downward revision, rather than a structural change in the emirate's economic base.

The Buffer That Backs the Rating

S&P's affirmation rests on Ras Al Khaimah's balance sheet, not its growth rate: government debt stood at 7.4% of GDP in 2025, against liquid assets S&P expects to average 30-35% of GDP through 2028. Total government spending is projected to average 12.7% of GDP over 2026-2029, up from about 9% in 2025, while contingent liabilities - guarantees and exposures outside the core budget - sit near 16% of GDP. That combination of low debt and a deep liquid cushion is what S&P says gives the emirate room to absorb a shock without a rating action.

What Could Move the Needle

S&P's own risk framing points to sector concentration: manufacturing, construction, trade and real estate together make up roughly 60% of Ras Al Khaimah's GDP and remain exposed to swings in market sentiment, while shipping disruptions could hit mining exports specifically. None of this is a signal to buy, sell or hold any Ras Al Khaimah-linked security - it is S&P's read on sovereign creditworthiness, not investment advice. The next test comes at S&P's following scheduled review, when updated fiscal and growth data will show whether the surplus path is holding.